politicalOD

At the start of the year the most vulnerable political leader in the British Isles might have been Rishi Sunak. Today, Leo Varadkar is gone and best forgotten, Jeffery Donaldson is gone (no comment), and there is Rishi in his Adidas Sambas still sitting around in the big chair. Change happens and events shape change. Reform may not be ready to take seats, but it certainly able to make its mark on the political landscape, perhaps not in 2024. For the DUP it means hanging on to incumbency as the best offer to the electorate, while for Rishi that's unlikely to be an option. Will Labour find that the ability to use social policy as a distraction to economic challenges will simply not be available to it in Government, the way both Blair and Cameron used hunting and gay marriage respectively. No party, no candidate has the right to be elected. Let the people decide...

There is a lack of substance, and basic honesty in politics in the UK. Perhaps this comes from the search for a tactical edge with elections looming. Perhaps because few have an underlying compass by which to articulate simply, directly and honestly the context in which action needs to happen to secure national renewal. Economic for sure, but more and more a sense of needing democratic renewal. Neither Sunak or Starmer impress, and unable to project leadership both seem slaves to events over which they have little control and on which their words have little impact. The Protocol remains unfinished business. The DUP is trying to say there is no border in the Irish Sea with most other politicians happy or accepting that as fact and sparing the blushes of the leader of the DUP by drawing attention that there is merely a fig leaf covering his hubris. And none of the parties in NI seem willing to acknowledge that the 'normal' fiscal irresponsibility can't continue. And meanwhile the mainstream media acts as if it completes with X to amplify unfounded opinion that seeks only affirmation from others in simply ignoring the herd of elephants in the public space.

This is the year of elections around the world. While America and Europe may see populism gain, in the UK it seems there will be little change but the party label. It isn’t certain how any of this pans out. There will be little time for the outworking of one election to be adsorbed before the next. 2024 will be an a fascinating year, offering a number of late night viewings for the election obsessed. Meanwhile the Northern Ireland Protocol remains and is due for full rigorous implementation by 2025. And, the Northern Ireland public sector isn't working.

The local Government elections in May and the more recent Westminster by-elections in England leave considerable challenges for political leaders in Northern Ireland and nationally, with wins and losses not being entirely clear cut. Everyone making the best of thread-bare endorsement. Meanwhile, into the public arena the political bogeyman that is Nigel Farage cuts through Orwellian double speak, gets straight to the point, and defenestrates institutional hubris like no other. While denying he has any future electoral ambitions, Farage remains the known unknown of British politics. The most positive thing that could be said of the underwhelming Windsor Framework impact on the Northern Ireland Protocol was "An Improvement", damning with faint praise, and even that isn't justified on close reading of the House of Lords Report. The unworkable Protocol is due to begin its rigorous implemented from early October in its slightly less unworkable 2.0 manifestation. Will it be ready, steady, chaos? Another known unknown. Despite the pressure on the DUP, at this point it is hard to see how any offer by Sunak would be in any way trusted. Political parties have from now to the conference season to work out the platform that will define their pitch for the General Election due to be called sometime before the end of next year. Despite the polls, assume nothing.

As the Coronation marks the continuity of the House of Windsor and the stability and sense of place for the UK, in Scotland the House of Sturgeon is in freefall. Remarkable history all around. Meanwhile elections excite, or don't. Difficult to read too much into local election results because very often they reflect actual local issues that concern local people. That does not mean hours of political analysis on what it all might mean. In Northern Ireland the South Belfast bubble will be seeking any reason on why there might be more pressure on the DUP to enable Stormont to get up and running, but little in the real world to suggest that is likely anytime soon. Finally, is Chris Heaton-Harris the worst Secretary of State ever?

Perhaps expecting Gary Lineker to have listened to there recent "The Rest is History" podcast, in which he is financially invested, is too much to expect. Her might have learned something, though perhaps it is all a bit above his head. The St Patrick's political festival is in full swing in the USA, to where our expenses-paid politicians (and the rest) seem to have decamped. It is from Washington DC that we learn of the DUP's current view on what it might think of the Sunak Framework, couched in such generalities and uncertainty demanding clarifications. This seems to make clear(-ish) that the Framework (a rehash of the NI Protocol that simply embeds the grace periods that would have lasted forever outside EU control - can't be having that) does not meet the DUP seven tests, even though those seven tests were themselves vague. With the seven tests not met, what then of the Panel? What exactly is it advising on? How does 'the public' make representation to the Panel when the general sense is that by composition and playbook this will likely deliver whatever the DUP leader requires to 'keep the show on the road', and when the public doesn't have the expert views the DUP has gathered to give guidance on to what extent the seven tests have been missed, and what options the DUP might consider going forward? In so many aspects of public discourse, those that want to be lauded for offering their guidance and leadership really do need to step up a gear. Perhaps numbed to low expectations, they won't be disappointed with themselves. They shouldn't be too surprised if the public expects more.

While Harry burns his bridges and asks the family to jump into the void, the UK and EU seem to imagine that if the word 'breakthrough' is used no-one will look too much at the detail. In both instances the truth is out there, somewhere, just not as real as you are asked to imagine. It isn't clear who the audiences for the outbreak of truths is trying to convince of the veracity to their accounts. Perhaps it doesn't matter. Politics is increasingly conducted in the moment of the last Tweet rather than the reality of life for the people impacted. No wonder politicians struggle to cut through and populists that feed on concerns and fears gain from this - nationalism feeds of division and shifting the blame onto Westminster and offering milk and honey if only.... While a General Election may be two years away, local elections will bring back political uncertainty and pressures on main parties. For Sunak and Starmer it will be a battle of energising their core vote, as few others might be inspired to be bothered to go to the voting booth. In Northern Ireland we may get two for one; an Assembly election along with the necessary Local Government poll. There will be some who might hope that would boost the UUP which performs well at local government level, largely due to long-standing personal votes. But the European Election should have put paid to that idea - although well-liked, the UUP's Danny Kennedy crashed in the European poll. The DUP will not fear an election. Everyone else will see it as another chance to beat up on the DUP without offering anything much. Plus ca change.

There is a date at the end of October when the Northern Ireland Secretary of State will call an election for the NI Assembly, or find some imaginative way to avoid national law and kick the can down the line. The issue as to whether an Assembly will be possible after an election is centred on whether or not an 'deal' is made between the EU and the UK Govt that either a) is equal to the intent of the NI Protocol Bill (not currently stalled in the House of Lords, to some people's disappointment) and/or satisfies the DUP 'seven tests'. Of course pressure will be on the DUP to accept ANY deal, which will be portrayed as 'the best deal ever'. There will be also voices demanding the the DUP accept the deal and to get the Assembly up and running so that the other Parties in the Executive can pretend to hand out money which in truth adds up to no more than an extra layer of bureaucracy between Westminster and getting support to households. The context is one of febrile politics around Westminster where Conservative MPs are acting like a herd of cattle with BSE.

This episode takes in a range of issues. Perhaps unconsciously it looks at how patience and focus on straightforward goals can reduce the greatest challenges to achievable goals. We look at the Queen's role from Empire changed to Commonwealth. How will Liz Truss fare in reversing the technocratic aversion to change and salami slicing the economy towards growth and a dynamic economy that frees people and business to be their best. How might that be reflected in relationships with the EU and approach to the added cost of the NI Protocol to everyday prices, approach to Northern Ireland political Party whining, or more widely in the world. On the world stage, perhaps an example of how not to focus without the ability to see through with delivery we have Russia and how China might have played a canny game of removing a rival - though with unforeseen downsides of placing a focus on how China is not so different in its nationalistic view of its neighbourhood. A time of challenges; navigating through seas of change.

It is a not so silly summer season, with the Conservatives looking for a new leader and the background of high energy costs, strikes, and war. No it is not the 1970s. In particular we don't seem to have the political figures that exude confidence and big ideas on the world stage, nationally nor, noting the death of David Trimble, locally.

Seems like we are heading into a period with Stormont being put in storage, mothballed for now, putting on hold all those amazing ideas MLAs have been imagining to solve all the problems of the world. Waiting, of course, for the greatest fanfare of all will be Robin Swann's plan to do what has not been done in twenty years of devolution; to end waiting lists and create the best working NHS anywhere in the UK. Sadly we will have to wait. First on the agenda is the Northern Ireland Protocol, that constitutional and economic thorn in the side of unionism, that (not before time) the DUP has decided takes priority over all else. In this podcast we discuss how the election was a bit dull, what might happen next, and the barriers that currently exist which might derail the Government from doing much as has been its way for months and months past. Until the EU is faced down on its absolutist legalistic hubris, and common sense prevails, Brexit will not be complete, and the Good Friday Agreement will be dead.

We don’t have much to go on when it comes to predicting the forthcoming election. The polling is volatile and there’s no reliable data on how many people don’t know who they will vote for or remain undecided. We look at the three relevant battles; in unionism, in nationalism, and the fight for the so called middle ground. There’s a lot of talk about new, fresh politics, but some of the rhetoric, particularly from Sinn Fein, seems depressingly familiar. We got here via a few weeks of phoney electoral war, during which the parties gave the impression that they were frenziedly busy. Did they achieve anything and why did they leave it so late to get their homework ready? Plus, the obligatory update on the Protocol. All the latest action on dealing with the Irish Sea border… or lack of it.

For all the talk of crisis things seem much the same up the hill at Stormont. Sinn Fein wants to see legislation through, but also an early election. What they couldn't do with 28 pieces of legislation they'll need twice as much time to do with fewer, apparently because the DUP pulled Paul Givan out of the Executive and despite that not reducing one day of Assembly time before they close for the always planned election. No journalist has asked a single political leader why that might be. Meanwhile, Doug Beattie's clean shaven look doesn't seem to have done anything to make his political antenna look more shiny. The UUP needs to focus on consistency if nothing else, because at the moment Mr Beattie looks like a man with no particular plan on any given day - though in fairness few other Parties have a better approach and all think blaming the DUP means no-one will ask them what their alternative approach might be. Meanwhile the hubris over Health continues apace. 8 weeks to save the NHS!!! No budget we are told despite hundreds of millions £ heading into the budget - rightly questioned by the DUP for being cash planned to be spent without a plan for spending. In future he won't have Covid to bring Armed Services in to cover staff shortages that have been created by the very restrictions his department has championed while everywhere else has abandoned the pretence they have any further value.

The New Year brought little cheer for Downing Street with a forever list of crises, much of its own making. Perhaps surprisingly, Downing Street is cut some slack on the podcast while the empty demands for the Prime Minister's resignation by Northern Ireland politicians is called out for what it is - hubris. Meanwhile, since the last podcast, Liz Truss has taken over the role of chief Brexit negotiator. This means that the NI Protocol is now one of many issues in the in-tray, whereas Lord Frost had only one job... Finally, there is no great joy in looking forward to the Assembly Elections in May. No doubt the Parties will all be saying that as part of the Executive how important they have all been, with all but the DUP saying how bad the DUP is, how awful it would be without the Assembly and Executive. If ever pointed out that absolutely nothing has been achieved by this particular Executive no doubt we will be told 'Covid" and it will all be marvellously better next time. Because, 'it is for the children'.

Despite claiming to be 'guided by the science' the NI Executive's reluctance to publish 'the evidence', the science and reason on which a decision is being made, seems churlish. It also seems that the politicians in the NI Executive don't quite trust, certainly lack confidence in the data. Added to which any review of the published NISRA data, a daily update on statistics around Covid and health services, even a casual review, raises questions that seem to be unanswered or simply contradictory to what the politicians and health 'experts' are saying. That undermines public confidence in decisions and policy being made. 20th Century Marxist historians didn't produce communist polemics. Rather it was a framework for critical thinking, that agree or disagree - plenty on both sides - the work was thought-provoking and based on considerable research. There was no such thing as an 'inconvenient' fact, just a fact which needed to be assessed with greater rigour and attention to endeavour to explain, to enlighten. The greats of the Enlightenment might not have recognised Marxist thinking, but there is no doubt they might appreciate the reason and rational thought applied. What do we have today. Universities seems to have been captured by 'activist' academics that selectively advance opinion which is factually and intellectually light, pitched all to often in a character-constrained tweet that lacks substance. Journalism seems more focused on clickbait headlines to gain attention for the journalist rather than focus attention on the facts within and around a story. And politicians with zero ideological frame, making up policy on the hoof with priority on how it will look in a 280 character summary.

Labour, Conservatives, and most recently the UUP presented fine optics at their respective conferences. Leaders who said a lot about nothing we didn't know already, at best. Boris was Boris, delivering what everyone in the Conference Centre expected of Boris. Sir Keir and Doug Beattie presented speeches that didn't alarm the horses. At least Sir Keir started to articulate a Labour Party of his own design. All the backdrops, bright lights, dancers and comedians (for once, not the politicians) still left a sense of something absent from the UUP. More structured and very well crafted was the speech given by Lord Frost in Portugal, which outlined what the UK expects from a future relationship with the EU and, yes, the NI Protocol. This builds on previous actions and papers, so there is pathway in place from the UK - a plan. We had to record the Podcast before the EU announced what it wanted everyone to focus on when it published the bureaucrats' response to difficulties only a few months ago the EU claimed didn't exist. The EU also claimed it would not re-negotiate the NI Protocol. Yet here we are, with the EU about to enter intense negotiations on the NI Protocol. Never say never.

We have heard a lot in Northern Ireland about Executive disagreement on the matter of 'Vaccine Passports'. Less clear, and barely discussed, is either the science that underscores a requirement for restricting 'the unvaccinated' access to hospitality venues. Arguments on encouraging vaccinations or 'saving' the NHS don't add up: the age categories with least vaccination uptake - say 18-30 - are not those showing most positive test results ("cases") or taking up hospital beds. The approach to policy around 'vaccine passports' seems to be around the same level as Brexit and the Protocol: wildly differing groups, none listening to any other, with facts or reason out the window. Meanwhile, world trade and international relations have been upended by Covid (not Brexit) in ways we couldn't have imagined and generating shortages and logjams that will take some considerable time to unwind and recalibrate to a 'normality'. Finally, it is Party Conference season. Starmer has had his day, Boris next week. Other than the very contrasting styles and personalities, are either really able to address issues that are far out of their control. Events dear boys, events.

Cherryvalley will be eating M&S baked beans on toast this Christmas as this one retailer lays bare their shelves in an honest announcement of the reduced Christmas lines for NI shoppers this year. Every indication is that the 'grace periods', currently preventing already challenging restraints on goods from GB to NI becoming brutal, will be extended beyond the 2022 Assembly election to spare the blushes of those calling for 'rigorous implementation'. Policing is in the news because a Report on policing, meant to be on the subject of South Armagh, seems to have raised more questions than it answers - though many are no longer certain what the question was in the first instance. Part of that policing review was about local surveying, and elsewhere this past week that topic was discussed following a Belfast Telegraph story reporting results of local pollster Lucid Talk, where the pollster soon became a bigger story than the poll's results. Also discussed is a 'Let's Talk Loyalism' survey, endeavouring to articulate the frustration within a particular community in Northern Ireland.

While we know there is a Judicial Review of the Protocol in our courts, the key points on which the Protocol is being challenged haven't had much airtime. Efforts by Jim Allister to explain on the BBC Northern Ireland Nolan Show were interrupted (frequently) by the host shouting "but Brexit". With his legal hat on, we give Jim time to set out the legal case, clearly: on the fundamental risk to the Act of Union, on conflict with principles of the NI Act 1998 that underpins the Belfast Agreement, and on the Human Rights issues around democratic legitimacy. The deflection from the cost of the Protocol, particularly to small businesses and the consumer, in suggesting that the Protocol was 'inevitable' simply reflects the intellectual shallowness of those who have already lost the argument on Brexit and continue to deny the a democratic national vote. Slightly longer than our usual podcast, but well worth the listen to understand the deep constitutional and economic dangers that lie within the Protocol, with repercussions across the UK. Leaders of Unionism would do well to listen, and learn, because focus on the 'process' of the Protocol risks missing the clear and present constitutional dangers. If you are inspired to support the JR challenge to the NI Protocol you can do so here: https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/defending-the-union-of-the-uk/

Has the DUP leadership contest been precipitated by policy, politics, or a simpler clash of personalities? Hard to say, and more difficult to see how the DUP comes out the other side with a stable leadership. Not that Unionist voters are going to have a massive choice in 2022 - devil you know, or the devil or the deep blue sea. The accusation of policy designed by focus group has been made. A greater issue is media's apparent obsession with 'polls' for easy headlines and lazy copy, with commentators left to consider why and with little in the actual news columns to enlighten or inform the voter on why and what is happening. We talk % and whether polls can be trusted rather than substantive issues around whether, whatever the numbers, are we getting good government.