Eurodollar University

Florida has long been the housing canary in the national real estate coalmine. The situation in the Sunshine State is anything but sunny with prices even outright declining in six key areas. That's just where the downturn is most pronounced right now. The excuses for an increasingly ugly housing market have worn out as the real story is finally being revealed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Kenny's Channel https://www.youtube.com/@KenMcElroy Video w/Jeff https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDQunoS96X4 FRB Vice Chair Michelle Bowman Unintended Policy Shifts and Unexpected Consequences https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20250623a.htm NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.8% Increase in May https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-0-8-increase-in-may Newsweek Most Florida Housing Markets Are in Trouble https://www.newsweek.com/most-florida-housing-markets-trouble-2086554 Bloomberg US Spring Homebuying Season Has Its Weakest Start in Five Years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/us-spring-homebuying-season-has-its-weakest-start-in-five-years Bloomberg US Home Resales Stay Sluggish on Affordability Constraints https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-23/us-home-resales-stay-sluggish-on-affordability-constraints NAR May 2024 https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-chief-economist-lawrence-yun-predicts-falling-long-term-interest-rates-rising-existing-home https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed is going cut...in July. Period. Book it. Conditions have drastically changed and the officials shift is now underway. Rates are going down everywhere, including in DC. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre CNBC Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/20/fed-governor-waller-says-central-bank-could-cut-rates-as-early-as-july.html https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A lot of people, maybe even a majority, find the idea of a two-decade long depression too far-fetched to take seriously. Something like that could never, ever happen. Could it? The problem is most everyone's idea of what a depression is needs to be corrected - another huge piece left missing by Economics. What is a depression? Way too familiar. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents NBER Cycle Dates https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions NYT Sept 19, 1873 https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1873/09/19/issue.html David A. Wells The Economic Disturbances Since 1873 https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Popular_Science_Monthly/Volume_31/July_1887/The_Economic_Disturbances_Since_1873_I Henry George Causes of Business Depression https://bibliotek1.dk/english/by-henry-george/articles-and-speeches/causes-of-business-depression JM Keynes A Tract on Monetary Reform https://ia902905.us.archive.org/35/items/tractonmonetaryr0000keyn/tractonmonetaryr0000keyn.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ It's back. No one wanted it, but it's here. Switzerland is first to revisit this dreaded milestone. Others aren't far behind, including now Sweden. The Swedes are facing exactly the sort of rough circumstances that made the Swiss National Bank take this drastic step. And if you think the Fed's dots have separate the FOMC from all this, look no further than one year ago. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis SNB Press Release Policy Decision https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20250619_2 CNBC International SNB Martin Schlegel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vY2-lrxsJfM Riksbank Press Release Policy Decision https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-and-published/notices-and-press-releases/press-releases/2025/policy-rate-is-cut-to-2-per-cent/ https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The FOMC met today and while predictably there was no rate action, neither the dots nor the downgraded economy were the key takeaways. Chair Powell’s press conference became the perfect example of what the Fed has become. What would you say you do here? Meanwhile, the markets, the economy and T-bills. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Struggling airlines grappling with staycations offer insight into consumer behavior. Meanwhile, the government also showed spending on goods (and certain key services) tanked again in May. Even the world's biggest entertainers and their concert tours are suddenly having a hard time. The dreaded pullback keeps getting louder and more confirmed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis IATA June 2025 https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-02-01/ Bloomberg Trump Risks US Consumer Discontent With His Tariffs, Poll Shows https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-24/trump-risks-us-consumer-discontent-with-his-tariffs-poll-shows Bloomberg Concert Ticket Prices Are Falling For the First Time in Years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-06-16/concert-ticket-prices-are-falling-for-the-first-time-in-years https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Nine months later, China's bazooka has totally flopped. We have all the proof necessary. But the "stimulus" failure is not even the biggest takeaway. The full story behind it starts with banks, detours into massive volatility in Hong Kong, before ending up with zombies. Seriously. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Beijing’s Borrowing Drove Credit Growth Despite Weak Loan Demand https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-13/china-credit-expansion-new-loans-rose-less-than-expected-in-may Bloomberg China Forced to Keep Unprofitable Firms Alive to Save Jobs and Avoid Unrest https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-06-12/xi-keeps-china-s-unprofitable-businesses-alive-to-save-jobs-and-avoid-unrest HK HIBOR https://www.hkab.org.hk/en/rates/hibor https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Oil explodes at the worst time imaginable. There is no good time, of course, here in June 2025 the economy is dealing with tariffs, tariff-distortions, not to mention a noticeable amount of fragility already. Is rising oil going to spark the inflation reignition the Fed has been fearing? Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

When did the dollar stop being a dollar? Most people might answer August 15, 1971, but a more accurate answer would be around a hundred years before then. There isn't exact date, just the most consequential evolution no one has ever heard of. The good news is that evolution doesn't stop. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are LT rates rising? Most people say it is the long overdue reckoning. After resisting inflation, the Fed, most of all insane debt levels for years, the chickens have finally come home to roost for longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds. And that would mean the market was wrong about all those factors up until now. What IS happening on the curve? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Negative downgrades to the world. Negative rates among major bonds already. Negative prices for consumers - here in the United States. The deflationary signals keep picking up. More to the point, all of this adds up to what markets like swaps have been saying for years. And that's the bad news. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis World Bank https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Central bankers are being forced to reckon with their inflation biases which are not standing up to reality. Deflationary consequences are breaking out worldwide, either in the form of increasingly layoff-riddled labor markets or outright price deflation; sometimes both. The global race to the bottom for interest rates is spreading as acknowledgement of economic facts rather than Economics fantasy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ RBI went full-blown shock and awe. Yet another major global central bank previously fixated on "inflation" abruptly and aggressively joining the race to the bottom. For India, it wasn't heavy rate cuts this time. Indian Officials said they want to shore up confidence; OK, so how bad is confidence if they fell "shock and awe" is necessary to shore it up? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis BBC India central bank delivers sharp rate cut as growth and inflation fall https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62vdq6g945o Times of India https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/bank-loans-to-nbfcs-slows-sharply/articleshow/121557368.cms https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

ST rates have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, the past few days, in particular. The 4w Treasury bill now yields less than IOR, repo, even the Fed's RRP "floor." That's not all: the 3m10s spread has reinverted again. At the same time another major central bank just hit the panic button, going with a 50-bps cut only a few months after getting started. Where is this all heading? Not in Jay's direction. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The payroll estimates for May were a total mess. The headline was weak, revisions make it totally unreliable anyway, and it only gets worse from there. A lot worse. The labor market is breaking down and it's getting uncomfortable and dangerous.

Eight times now. The ECB is trying to say it might be one now, yet no one is listening least of all the economy. What everyone really wants to know is, when is the Fed going to follow along? In addition to all these other central banks acting, the latest reports from the Fed itself show that rejoining the global rate race might be a lot closer than everyone thinks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ECB Press Conference Statement https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2025/html/ecb.is250605~f00a36ef2b.en.html Bloomberg US Initial Jobless Claims Rise to Highest Level Since October https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-05/us-initial-jobless-claims-rise-to-highest-level-since-october Fed Beige Book May 2025 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250604.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ For a week when the labor market and its data are in the bright, blaring spotlight, it did NOT get off to a good start. Not only ADP, also ISM. Both together showed the economy continued losing momentum and vitality in May - even with tariff delays and a stock market rebound. Both ended p with some of the worst numbers for each in years. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis ADP May 2025 https://adpemploymentreport.com/ Bloomberg US Hiring Cools to Slowest Pace in Two Years, ADP Data Show https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-hiring-falls-to-slowest-pace-in-two-years-adp-data-show Bloomberg US Services Activity Contracts for First Time in Nearly a Yearhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/us-services-activity-contracts-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-year CNBC Trump says ‘Too Late’ Powell must lower interest rates after weak ADP jobs report https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/trump-powell-adp-jobs.html https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Why are swap spreads today as negative as they had been in the worst parts of April? Why is Swiss franc nearly as strong? Consumer prices undershooting and even turning negative offer a bigtime clue. As does the latest from Chinese and American factories. It’s not one big thing like April, it’s all the little things which keep coming up and piling on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Swiss Inflation Turns Negative for First Time in Four Years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/swiss-inflation-turns-negative-for-first-time-in-four-years Bloomberg Euro-Zone Inflation Slows Below 2%, Backing More ECB Cuts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/euro-zone-inflation-slows-below-2-backing-more-ecb-rate-cuts Bloomberg RBA’s Hunter Sees US Tariffs Dragging on Australian Growth, Jobs https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/rba-s-hunter-sees-us-tariffs-dragging-on-australian-growth-jobs OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1 https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en.html CNBC U.S. growth forecast cut sharply by OECD as Trump tariffs sour global outlook https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/03/us-growth-forecast-cut-further-by-oecd-as-trump-tariffs-sour-outlook.html Bloomberg China’s Private Factory Gauge Plunges to Weakest Since 2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/china-private-factory-gauge-unexpectedly-shrinks-after-us-truce https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/ Several more countries around the world are reporting contractions in GDP even before getting to trade wars and any tariff impacts. The latest cluster around Scandinavia and have European banks overall behaving in very curious ways. So much so, the typically hands-off ECB is writing letters to them and threatening on-site visits to get some answers before the economy really takes its turn. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Sweden’s Surprise Economic Contraction Boosts Rate Cut Odds https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/swedish-economy-unexpectedly-shrinks-weighed-down-by-investment Bloomberg ECB Steps Up Scrutiny of Banks’ Exposure to Private Markets https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/ecb-intensifies-scrutiny-of-banks-exposure-to-private-markets https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Texas Just Sent a Warning Shot to the Rest of the U.S. Economy Consumer spending in Texas has collapsed, and the data from the Dallas Fed is worse than anyone expected. Retail sales activity fell off a cliff in May, hitting levels not seen since April 2020. Inventories are piling up, work hours are being slashed, and employers are cutting back. Is this just a Texas problem… or is it the first sign of a nationwide consumer retrenchment? In this video, we break down the shocking data, why it matters, and how it could ripple across the entire U.S. economy in the months ahead. If the U.S. consumer breaks, it’s game over. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU