Eurodollar University

There is a resurgence underway not from consumer prices as everyone thinks, instead the use of the term "stagflation." This is really nothing more than the shift in narrative attempting to incorporate more visible economic weakness while still keeping it the idea "inflation." But as the former takes the forefront, the latter will continue to fade until what's left isn't even stagnation. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another critical economic measures shows big negative changes and they aren't "inflation" problems. It's not just that American consumers are cracking, the consistent theme which keeps coming up over and over is jobs. The US labor market has been stuck in half a recession already, is this now the other half? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis UofM Surveys of Consumers http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ CNBC Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey shows https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/consumer-sentiment-tumbles-as-inflation-fears-surge-closely-watched-survey-shows.html https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The one news article in the media said it all; more companies are now cutting their prices despite inflation. Except, no, it isn't in spite of other price changes, instead in response to them. The economy isn't inflationary, it is weak and getting weaker. Eye opening new data is alarmingly consistent with the price cuts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CNN Retailers jacked up prices and squeezed consumers. They might have just blinked https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/business/retailers-cutting-prices/index.html Michaels Lowers Prices on Thousands of Arts, Crafts and DIY Items https://www.michaelspressroom.com/news/detail/2293/michaels-lowers-prices-on-thousands-of-arts-crafts-and-diy https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Japan's government conducted three (unconfirmed) major currency interventions in less than a week. Already JPY is falling almost like they never happened. It's the dollar that's the matter because what's the matter isn't just Japan and like a lot of things energy is the key. As the Japanese understand all too well, energy means dollars. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg BOJ’s Ueda Ramps Up Yen Warnings While Traders Keep Selling https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-08/boj-s-ueda-tweaks-weak-yen-remarks-in-possible-hint-of-rate-hike https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

FreightWaves Texas’ Arnold Transportation acquired by Canada’s Pride Group Logistics https://www.freightwaves.com/news/texas-arnold-transportation-acquired-by-canadas-pride-group-logistics Global NewsWire Pride Group Logistics Expands U.S. Presence With the Acquisition of Arnold Transportation Services, Inc. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/02/01/2377007/0/en/Pride-Group-Logistics-Expands-U-S-Presence-With-the-Acquisition-of-Arnold-Transportation-Services-Inc.html FreightWaves 92-year-old Texas trucking company files for bankruptcy liquidation https://www.freightwaves.com/news/92-year-old-texas-trucking-company-files-for-bankruptcy-liquidation Investopedia Etsy Stock Dives as Retailer Warns of 'Challenging Environment' for Consumer Spending https://www.investopedia.com/etsy-q1-2024-earnings-weak-consumer-spending-8642325 ISM Services April 2024 https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/april/ Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The first disappointment from payrolls in what seems like forever is only the start. It follows a number of increasingly ugly developments including a solid shocker from the US services sector - and its own measure of employment. In addition to reviewing the latest updates, Jeff and Steve also take apart the "dovish" QT myth that has popped up. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What would the price of oil be without Saudi Arabia's actions? What would Treasury yields be without the Fed? There is a way for us to determine what the underlying fundamental monetary and financial conditions really are which offers a rough approximation for both. Crude would be a lot less and market interest rates, let's just say there's no inflation whatsoever in these fundamentals. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We need to confront the fact there remains a serious problem in the US with Marxism. To successfully counter the threat REQUIRES first we understand why that is and what keeps it going. It's not enough to "clap back" with platitudes correctly pointing to Communism's barbaric history. Nor is the modern world's prosperity a sufficient counterargument. The true Socialist admits that's what capitalism was supposed to have accomplished. The entire matter revolves around whether that last statement truly is in the past tense. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis the Atlantic Why the Phrase 'Late Capitalism' Is Suddenly Everywhere https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/05/late-capitalism/524943/ QUB Law Society Demystifying late stage capitalism on both a global and national level: the ball and chain of a 21st century free market economy https://www.theverdictonline.org/post/demystifying-late-stage-capitalism-on-both-a-global-and-national-level-the-ball-and-chain-of-a-21st AP Archive CAN973 FILE / ARCHIVE FOOTAGE OF VLADIMIR LENIN https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IJbNwt9J00 RCM July 10, 2020 Socialism Would Have Been Easy to Discredit, Had There Been Growth https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/07/10/socialism_would_have_been_easy_to_discredit_had_there_been_growth_498699.html The Atlantic 26 Years of Growth: Shanghai Then and Now https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2013/08/26-years-of-growth-shanghai-then-and-now/100569/ NYT Nov 14, 1939 https://www.nytimes.com/1939/11/14/archives/browder-assails-pope-at-rally-here-he-tells-22000-at-the-garden.html Time Magazine May 30, 1938 https://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19380530,00.html https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Hiring has near completely dried up in the US labor market, contrary to all mainstream talk of a booming economy. JOLTS hires was the lowest since March and April 2020, and apart from those the worst in six and a half years. That substantial weakness was further corroborated by some of the biggest companies in the world reporting sharply lower results on increasing consumer difficulties. Yet, everyone will be focused entirely on the Fed and its absurd "inflation" fixation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FOMC Chair Powell Press Conference Playback May 1, 2024 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0unztmcLvA USA Today https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/03/07/job-market-cooling-despite-high-employment-numbers/72846912007/ Behind the rosy job numbers, Americans are struggling to find work Bloomberg Starbucks Posts First Sales Drop Since 2020 During Global Pullback https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-30/starbucks-sbux-sales-slump-as-customers-pull-back-across-the-world?srnd=all Bloomberg KFC Owner’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/kfc-owner-s-sales-fall-for-first-time-since-2020-as-weakness-spreads ISM Manufacturing Press Release https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/april/ https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Evidence for demand destruction in the US economy is really piling up. Consumer sentiment tumbled, services businesses in parts of the country are shedding workers in a way and to a degree we only see during recession, and major Midwest manufacturing plunged. All that was just today. The common theme through each one is a change in employment conditions and not the good one. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis the Conference Board Consumer Confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tssos/2024/2404#tab-comments https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The first bank failure of 2024 is a familiar tale. A relatively small institution in Philadelphia, by itself it doesn't really mean all that much. However, there are a couple of important developments to go along with the background which raise questions and a few concerns. Is this the second chapter for the bank crisis? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis FDIC Press Release https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/fulton-bank-na-lancaster-pennsylvania-assumes-substantially-all-deposits Republic First's last SEC filing https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000834285/6c29a651-35e8-48f3-8803-6b7376b1ab7f.pdf Republic First's last posted balance sheet https://investors.myrepublicbank.com/financial-info/balance-sheet/default.aspx Bloomberg's April 2024 report on FDIC soliciting bids FDIC Is Approaching Potential Buyers of Republic First https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-24/fdic-is-said-to-approach-potential-buyers-of-republic-first Bloomberg's October 2023 report on FDIC soliciting bids FDIC Sought Buyers for Republic First Before Investor Deal https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/fdic-sought-buyers-for-republic-first-before-investor-deal https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week's big miss in US GDP raises several questions about the state of the economy. It was significant enough to immediately call into doubt the soft landing. Last year's surge now appears to have been just a short run temporary jump, meaning GDP might be joining the majority of macro data indicating much sharper and more serious weakness than was though just before the data's release. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre S&P Global April 2024 flash PMIs https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917 https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's not just that Japan's yen is crashing, it's what a yen crash means to everyone not only in Japan. But why? All you'll hear from the mainstream and most "experts" is that every currency exchange rate movement including JPY must be somehow related to a central bank, especially the Fed. It's a myth easily debunked. When doing the debunking the real truth emerges and it's not good. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Bloomberg Yen Drops Beyond 158 Per Dollar as BOJ Keeps Key Rate Unchanged https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-26/yen-drops-to-fresh-34-year-low-as-boj-keeps-key-rate-unchanged Trilateral Ministerial Joint Press Statement https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2264 FOMC Transcript February 1998 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19980204meeting.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

GDP comes in the worst in two years because prices shot up again, therefore the term "stagflation" is going to be everywhere. Which prices changed actually makes a huge difference given the fact those particular prices are more likely to help the US economy get back to its depression tendencies. And on that count, we have irrefutable proof from oil, gasoline, and energy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Uncle Sam tried his best to buy a recovery. The sheer amount of money redistributed by the federal govt the past four years is incomprehensible. Here's the thing: the transfers didn't stop in 2021. A huge chunk of them kept going right on to today. And still it wasn't enough to stabilize an economy that is showing signs of even more weakening. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Oil prices aren't inflationary, they're disinflationary. We are getting more proof right now as incoming data shows demand being destroyed. This is creating difficulties for the US economy on top of severe strain around the rest of the world. Several key markets are picking up the distress, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/2a6d069e95b3402f85a5e44e3ff49917 Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024 https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdf Bloomberg China Is Front and Center of Gold’s Record-Breaking Rally https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-21/china-is-front-and-center-of-gold-s-record-breaking-rally https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed's latest semi-annual report on financial risks contains a couple of important updates. First, we get a sense of where the systemic attempt to deal with the downside to the commercial real estate bubble stands. That also feeds into the most recent updates on US banks and the deteriorating credit environment. Plus, we also take a look at why the Fed's report singled-out the stock market and what that means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report April 2024 https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20240419.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There is a tendency to conflate the behavior of consumer prices with the condition of the economy. With the current mania over recent CPIs in full bloom, fears extend into the real economy. Is it really "too hot?" Recent data from the Federal Reserve itself actually helps separate the facts from the misperceptions. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre Beige Book April 2024 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240417.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university

The world is starting to get the idea that rate hikes are not all they're cracked up to be. Yet, we're forced to focus endlessly on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. Why? The answer is really simple. More importantly, what's really going on in the economy? That answer is also pretty simple, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Jay Powell Jackson Hole August 2023 Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20230825a.htm FOMC Transcript July 2014 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20140730meeting.pdf Ben Bernanke Jan 2009 The Crisis and the Policy Response https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090113a.htm https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed is all over the place, flip-flopping sometimes within a matter of weeks. They're confident about inflation then they're not. What's the real reason for so much back and forth, the obvious insecurity? It's the story no one really knows and what actually ties the current day with the past Great Inflation. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis CSPAN William Proxmire https://www.c-span.org/video/?322377-1/political-career-senator-william-proxmire https://www.c-span.org/video/?39834-1/government-waste https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4704392/sen-william-proxmire Hutchinson v Proxmire https://www.oyez.org/cases/1978/78-680 Federal Reserve Memo Nov 6, 1973 & letter from Arthur Burns to Senator Proxmire https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/burns/Burns_19731106.pdf NYT Dec 2, 1975 Proxmire Would Curtail Banks https://www.nytimes.com/1975/12/02/archives/proxmire-would-curtail-banks.html FOMC Transcript July 1981 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19810707meeting.pdf https://www.eurodollar.university Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU