The Focus Group Podcast

Voters have gotten long looks at both Donald Trump and Joe Biden representing America on the world stage, so what did swing voters see? Bill Kristol joins Sarah to talk about the foreign policy stakes of the 2024 election, and how voters think about the War in Ukraine and America's role in it. This show was recorded before Iran's April 13-14 attack on Israel.

Some voters in recent Democratic primaries have been upset with Joe Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war. Whether and how he can bring them back onside in November is an open question. Pod Save America co-host Tommy Vietor joins Sarah to break down a small but critical part of the Democratic coalition, why they're upset, and what it could mean in November.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is shaking up the presidential race...and no one knows what his impact is going to be. So we talked to former Trump voters and former Biden voters who are giving Kennedy a look. Astead Herndon, host of the New York Times politics podcast The Run-Up joins Sarah to discuss his recent interview with Kennedy and how the voters are thinking about him. Show Notes: The Run-Up: Don't Ask RFK Jr. About Being a Spoiler

The House recently passed a bill that could lead to a ban on TikTok in the U.S. It made for strange bedfellows (Lauren Boebert voted for it, and President Biden would sign it). It takes a lot to get them to agree…but the voters we talked to didn’t get the memo. Bulwark White House correspondent Andrew Egger joins Sarah to break down a weird and important debate in Washington.

Sarah's trying to convince former Trump voters to abandon him in November, through a campaign called Republican Voters Against Trump. It's a tall order, but luckily she's done it before. The Bulwark's own Tim Miller, who was the political director of Republican Voters Against Trump in 2020, joins Sarah to discuss the theory behind RVAT and how anti-Trump forces can capitalize on recent good news for Biden. show notes Republican Voters Against TrumpOctober 2023 Focus Group Podcast with Amy WalterAnti-Trump Group of Republicans Lays Out $50 Million Plan of Attack

The Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Ohio is heating up...unexpectedly. Cleveland-area businessman Bernie Moreno is on the ropes despite Trump's endorsement. And despite voters being mad about the Cleveland Guardians (née Indians) name change, a member of the ownership family is still in the ballgame (pun intended). NBC News senior political reporter and Ohio native Henry Gomez joins Sarah to break down this primary and preview what will be one of November's biggest Senate races.

Donald Trump is polling better with Black voters than he used to, so we fielded a focus group of Black voters who are warming up to him...after not voting for him in 2016 or 2020. Ashley Allison, former Biden-Harris campaign official and CNN commentator, joins Sarah to discuss why some Black voters are souring on the Democratic Party.

California's U.S. Senate race is a battle royal for small-dollar Democratic donors, between Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter...but they're both boosting certain Republican candidates to gain an advantage in this race. California also has a governor who's scheming to run for president in 2028. Pod Save America's Jon Favreau joins Sarah to discuss California's present Democratic stars and their futures on the national stage. show notes: Pod Save America Offline with Jon Favreau The Wilderness

Nikki Haley is in YOLO mode as she faces down a loss in her home state of South Carolina, but her years-long tortured Trump two-step has caught up to her. The Atlantic's Tim Alberta joins Sarah to discuss his reporting on Haley through the years and ask a simple question: is this FINALLY her last straw with Trump? show notes By Tim Alberta: Nikki Haley's Time for Choosing The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory: American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism American Carnage: On the Front Lines of the Republican Civil War and the Rise of President Trump

Trump appears to be in the driver's seat to return to the White House. We could really use more two-time Trump voters who don't want to vote for him again. Fortunately, we found a group just like that! Jonathan V. Last joins Sarah to listen to two-time Trump voters who think "life's too short" for the anger of the Trump years, and to break down what else they do...and do not...think about the threat of Trump.

We're bringing you an update on the Republicans in Congress. We taped this BEFORE Republicans failed to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, failed to pass aid to Israel, and before the Senate's compromise on the border and foreign aid was blown up. Still, this show gives you a good window into what Republican voters expect from congressional leadership these days, and who is and is not measuring up. The Bulwark's eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, Joe Perticone joins Sarah to hear from Republican voters.

Nevada has a GOP presidential primary AND a caucus. Donald Trump is going to win the caucus...but the primary is a race between Nikki Haley and "None of these Candidates." Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent returns to break down the mess that is Nevada's presidential contest, and to preview the state's starring role in the general election.

Donald Trump is wrapping up the Republican nomination, despite 91 felony charges against him. One reason for that is that his voters don't seem to trust any unflattering news about him...and they're turning to sources you probably haven't heard of. Many of them feel like Fox News has gone "woke"...and we're going to ask them why. Brian Stelter, author of Network of Lies: The Epic Saga of Fox News, Donald Trump, and the Battle for American Democracy joins Sarah to discuss the past, present, and future of conservative media. Show notes Disclaimer: This episode discusses several members of the Murdoch family. Kathryn Murdoch is an investor in The Bulwark. Network of Lies: The Epic Saga of Fox News, Donald Trump, and the Battle for American Democracy

Nikki Haley is on the ropes after losing Iowa by 30 points, but there's one group of voters who could bail her out: New Hampshire's undeclared and moderate Republican voters. The problem? Even though they vote in Republican primaries sometimes, they hate Trump, they're pro-choice, and some watch MSNBC. Republican voters in all of the other states? Not so much.

Iowa's living legend of polling, J. Ann Selzer, joins Sarah to listen to Iowa Republicans ahead of the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Ann discusses her polling, how she does her own focus groups, and how Republican voters are feeling about Donald Trump (good), and the rest of the candidates (lukewarm at best). Ann also discusses how Donald Trump's efforts in Iowa are MUCH better organized in 2024 than in 2016...which will matter in the sub-zero weather Iowa is expecting on caucus night.

To mark the three-year anniversary of the January 6 attack, we're doing something we've never done before. We're digging deep into our archives to play focus group clips from January 2021, right after the attacks, and showing how the voters have changed three years on. show notes: Rep. Kinzinger's new book: Renegade: Defending Democracy and Liberty in Our Divided Country Rep. Kinzinger's organizations: Country First Country First Academy

Donald Trump has a huge lead in the Republican primaries...but Nikki Haley has managed to distinguish herself from the other afterthoughts in the field. GOP pollster Whit Ayres joins Sarah for the last episode of 2023 to recap the Republican presidential primary and chart out Nikki Haley's narrow path to the nomination. Hat-tip to Peter Hamby of Puck for the term ‘Haley Mary.’ https://puck.news/haley-mary/

The economy isn't the best...but it could be a lot worse. And our guest thinks voters are catastrophizing too much about the state of things. Sarah's best friend Jonathan V. Last (JVL) joins the show to argue with voters who aren't there to argue back. show notes: Even Most Biden Voters Don’t See a Thriving Economy

Democrats need young voters on-side to win in 2024...so how is Gen Z feeling about the future of the country, and their leaders? What do young progressives and conservatives think about each other? Peter Hamby of Puck News joins Sarah to check in with a cross-section of young voters. show notes Peter's: https://puck.news/biden-gen-z-and-the-illiberal-left/ https://puck.news/bidens-youth-serum-shortage/ The Nineties by Chuck Klosterman

Americans are more divided than they've been in a long time, and Sarah and our guest have heard a lot about that when they've done focus groups together this year. PBS NewsHour's Judy Woodruff joins Sarah for a special Thanksgiving episode to discuss how Americans are thinking of their political differences, and how we might move beyond them going into another contentious election year. show notes America at a Crossroads: What Iowa Republicans Are Thinking After Trump's Federal IndictmentIowa Republicans discuss role of politics in their lives, hopes for overcoming divisionsHow a group of Ohio voters are working to bridge the widening partisan dividePennsylvania Democrats discuss nation's political divisions and their feelings for Biden